The Starting Five Super Bowl XLII Prediction
In a Super Bowl that will be historical regardless of the outcome, history will be made during the game as Mike Carey becomes the first Black official to head a Super Bowl crew. Carey in his 18th season as an official tells John Smallwood, “Obviously this means a lot to me, I’m proud, honored, humbled and blessed to have this opportunity.” He goes on to say that, “This is the erosion of one more stereotype that all of us know should be gone.” More on his great story later this month.
(Photo: onebigdog.net)
First Black crew chief in SB history
Today’s contest will will either carry the shock value of Super Bowl III, or it may be a matter of counting down to 00:00.
Here’s why each team will win and my prediction.
Why the Giants will win:
No pressure here – did anyone outside of that locker room really expect the G-Men to be here today, hell if Tiki Barber were still a Giant I don’t think they would be here. Eli Manning has figured this NFL quarterbacking thing out. He realizes that he has a better chance of winning if he tries not to win it on his own. He has learned to utilize his skill players The Giants are not as deep offensively as the Patriots, but their running game counters the Pats passing attack. I would give the Giants receivers the edge over the Pats running game. The Giants will go to Plaxico Burress as often as needed – opening the door for Amani Toomer, Steve Smith and Kevin Boss to step up when Burress sees double-teams. The Giants will have to do what Jacksonville did not do with their two power backs Brandon Jacobs and rookie Ahmad Bradshaw; pound the ball and eat the clock. No one has tried this strategy yet and the Pats struggle against the run. If you get past the first wave, linebackers Mike Vrabel, Teddy Bruschi, and Junior Seau aren’t as fast as they used to be – in the secondary, Rodney Harrison is closer to a coverage safety at this stage of his career than he is a hitter. Corner Asante Samuel will have help against Burress.
If he’s dominates, the Giants win
The Giants front four has been relentless all season and I get the sense they feel they hold the keys to the G-Men’s championship hopes. Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora will be hell on wheels today and they will get to Tom Brady. The main concern for linebackers Antonio Pierce and Kawika Mitchell is coverage on the Patriots Kevin Faulk on screen plays and in the flat. Faulk was effective receiving out of the backfield aginst the Chargers in the AFC Championship. If the front seven can control the game it will take pressure off of a secondary that just doesn’t have the dept or speed to match the Patriots receivers.
Why the Patriots will win:
They are ready to close the deal – this is the last mile in a season where they have had everything thrown at them from allegations of cheating to almost losing on a few occasions – while showing some vulnerability. Through it all they have stuck it out and are now at history’s doorstep.
The Patriots can really go for the jugular early if they choose to test a shaky Giants secondary, if they go through the air expect no less than 7 catches from Wes Welker. I think the Giants are willing to let anyone but Randy Moss beat them. If they keep Moss in front of them they would consider it a victory. Kevin Faulk has a chance to be the MVP of this game, if he plays anything close to his game against the Chargers. If this comes to fruition, the game will be over early in the 3rd quarter. If Laurence Maroney is successful early he will see more touches than one would expect–thus adding more pressure to the Giants defense.
It all comes down to this: If Moss has his usual game, then the Giants are in trouble.
Expect the Patriots to give Manning a totally different look from their first meeting – throwing an assortment of linebacker rushes while end Richard Seymour occasionally dropping into coverage. The Pats may even go with four linemen from time to time.
The undersized secondary has to win a physical battle with the Giant receivers. If Burress is doubled, they have to stay true and cannot let Kevin Boss become a factor. Amani Toomer may be asked to go over the middle at some point, and the Pats linebackers have to keep him in front of them.
Prediction:
I believe the longer the Giants hang around, the better their chances. I know that New England wants to end this early, and if the Giants can withstand the offensive fire power of the Patriots the pressure will mount against Brady and Co.
Ultimately, it will come down to who can capitalize on mistakes. The Giants defensive line is going to get a turnover at some point leading to a score.
I’ve been feeling the Giants all week and I won’t stop now.
The Giants defeated the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs after losing to each team during the regular season…
Destiny calls….
Giants 28 – Patriots 24