The Starting Five NBA Finals Preview: Can the Lakers Defeat Orlando Despite Magic Shooting?
Ahhh the possibilities. Just heard a stat that was oh so New York Yankees like. This is the 63rd NBA Finals and the Los Angeles Lakers have played in a staggering 30 of them (14-15). The Orlando Magic on the other hand are playing in their second NBA Finals and have yet to win the title. Just not so long ago, this was an expansion team, so to win a chip this early in the game would obviously be outstanding. We all know the cornerstones of that ‘95 team (swept by Dream and the Rockets) was Shaquille O’Neal and also Anfernee Hardaway. Now another raw big fella, Dwight Howard, looks to thunder his name alongside past big men greats when he and the Magic go up against one of the most celebrated franchises in sports.
Need to see the flick as it happened?
Nasty huh?
The Lakers were 0-2 versus the Magic during the regular season with Orlando winning 106-103 on December 20th and 109-103 on January 16th. Jameer Nelson averaged 27 points in the two victories.
Let’s get to it started with the Western Conference Champions, the Los Angeles Lakers.
65-17 during the 2008-2009 season.
Playoff results:
| Sun 19 | vs Utah First Round | W 113-100 |
| Tue 21 | vs Utah First Round | W 119-109 |
| Thu 23 | @ Utah First Round | L 86-88 |
| Sat 25 | @ Utah First Round | W 108-94 |
| Mon 27 | vs Utah First Round | W 107-96 |
| May | Opponent | Result |
| Mon 04 | vs Houston Conf. Semi-Finals | L 92-100 |
| Wed 06 | vs Houston Conf. Semi-Finals | W 111-98 |
| Fri 08 | @ Houston Conf. Semi-Finals | W 108-94 |
| Sun 10 | @ Houston Conf. Semi-Finals | L 87-99 |
| Tue 12 | vs Houston Conf. Semi-Finals | W 118-78 |
| Thu 14 | @ Houston Conf. Semi-Finals | L 80-95 |
| Sun 17 | vs Houston Conf. Semi-Finals | W 89-70 |
| Tue 19 | vs Denver Conf. Finals | W 105-103 |
| Thu 21 | vs Denver Conf. Finals | L 103-106 |
| Sat 23 | @ Denver Conf. Finals | W 103-97 |
| Mon 25 | @ Denver Conf. Finals | L 101-120 |
| Wed 27 | vs Denver Conf. Finals | W 103-94 |
| Fri 29 | @ Denver Conf. Finals | W 119-92 |
Lakers pros:
1. Kobe Bryant.
2. Phil Jackson.
3. Experience.
4. Intestinal fortitude.
5. Versatility.
6. Trevor Ariza.
7. Kobe Bryant’s leadership.
Lakers cons:
1. Complacency.
2. Will they rely on Kobe Bryant too much?
3. Andrew Bynum’s mind.
4. “Perceived” softness.
5. Derek Fisher
6. What Lamar Odom will show up?
7. Too much pressure?
What team is going to show up? I look at it this way: Are the Lakers definitively better than last season’s NBA runner ups? Of course, my opinion, but I would say no. Derek Fisher has lost a step. Andrew Bynum, while he is on the floor, hasn’t fully recovered mentally from injury. There is this about Bynum though, watching his team from the sidelines this time last year was hell on the young fella. I saw it in his face. I asked him about it again this year and he still seemed hot. Can he average 15 and 10 for the series (up from 6 and 3?) Give Kobe 30 a game. Pau 20 and 15. Say Lamar gets 17 and 9. Ariza 12. The rest is up to the bench and Derek Fisher to get at least to that 106 point mark and 106 wasn’t enough during the season was it? I really think Kobe has to play out of his mind to win this series. The Magic are markedly the better three point shooting team. Obviously, when a team is hitting threes, it maximizes their possessions. Can the Lakers keep up? They somewhat shed the softness tag against the Nuggets, but how will their defense stack up with all the interior Dwight Howard pressure?
The Eastern Conference Champion Orlando Magic.
59-23 during the regular season.
Playoff results:
| Sun 19 | vs Philadelphia First Round Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
L 98-100 |
| Wed 22 | vs Philadelphia First Round Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
W 96-87 |
| Fri 24 | @ Philadelphia First Round | L 94-96 |
| Sun 26 | @ Philadelphia First Round | W 84-81 |
| Tue 28 | vs Philadelphia First Round Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
W 91-78 |
| Thu 30 | @ Philadelphia First Round | W 114-89 |
| May | Opponent | Result |
| Mon 04 | @ Boston Conf. Semi-Finals | W 95-90 |
| Wed 06 | @ Boston Conf. Semi-Finals | L 94-112 |
| Fri 08 | vs Boston Conf. Semi-Finals Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
W 117-96 |
| Sun 10 | vs Boston Conf. Semi-Finals Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
L 94-95 |
| Tue 12 | @ Boston Conf. Semi-Finals | L 88-92 |
| Thu 14 | vs Boston Conf. Semi-Finals Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
W 83-75 |
| Sun 17 | @ Boston Conf. Semi-Finals | W 101-82 |
| Wed 20 | @ Cleveland Conf. Finals | W 107-106 |
| Fri 22 | @ Cleveland Conf. Finals | L 95-96 |
| Sun 24 | vs Cleveland Conf. Finals Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
W 99-89 |
| Tue 26 | vs Cleveland Conf. Finals Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
W 116-114 |
| Thu 28 | @ Cleveland Conf. Finals | L 102-112 |
| Sat 30 | vs Cleveland Conf. Finals Amway Arena, Orlando, FL |
W 103-90 |
Magic pros:
1. Dwight Howard wants to do it right now.
2. Living in the moment.
3. Stan Van Gundy’s penchant for making the right adjustments.
4. Jameer Nelson mental boost whether he plays or not.
5. The eyes of Rashard Lewis; the Ray Allen get back.
6. Hidayet Turkoglu and Game 6 Sacramento.
7. The NBA has been dominated by big men the entire current generation if not ever. Check how many Finals Jerry West lost.
Magic cons:
1. Finding an answer for Kobe Bryant.
2. Never been here before.
3. How is Rafer Alston going to respond with all the Jameer Nelson talk? Anthony Johnson?
4. Are the Magic for real?
5. Which one of their two perimeter shooters will be nullified?
6. Stopping Laker runs.
7. The Lakers are the best team they’ve faced. Don’t know if they’ll respond to Los Angeles patience, discipline and expertise.
Prediction:
Jameer Nelson isn’t playing tonight and maybe not the entire series. This held up the preview because of what most may not know. If he does play, he will put up about 12 and 5 at least in limited minutes. While he is a professional, he reps Chester like Ron Ron reps QB. Lower Merion won its first Pennsylvania state championship in 53 years with Kobe at the helm in a state where Chester straight dominates. His 27 pg average this season was no fluke. He gets up for LA and probably will for the rest of his life. East Coast baby.
Getting that out of the way, Dwight Howard is gonna murder the Lakers but he can’t do it alone. There will be a lot of switching in this series and the chess game between SVG and Jackson will be memorable.
The Magic barely got pass the Sixers, same with Boston and Cleveland. They are battle tested.
Both teams mirror each other in demeanor. Advantage Lakers because of 24.
Pau Gasol is versatile, but I’m still not convinced he won’t get punked down low when Dwight is standing in the way or helping out on defense.
The Lamar Odom/Rashard Lewis matchup decides this series. Courtney Lee is a wild card. He can get you 10 straight in a flash.
Trevor Ariza will have to play sick defense whoever he’s guarding. I see Kobe guarding Turk in closing minutes.
Ariza will hit threes of the secondary break but isn’t a great shooting in a half court set.
Phil Jackson does not lose when he wins game one. You all know the stat, so there’s no need printing it here.
Hedo Turkoglu and the Lakers. Playing LA with Kobe Bryant still doing his thing has to conjure images of Chris Webber/Mike Bibby/Doug Christie/Peja/Rick Adleman/Robert Horry/No Diesel now he’s playing for them/Kobe killed them/Game 6 elbow/Vlade flops.
Will he get off?
The obvious factor is Kobe Bryant’s greatness. If he wins this championship he has to be included in the top ten of all time. Passing the likes of Julius Erving (though I’m not so sure he wasn’t a better player than Bird in his prime), Elgin Baylor and Dream. I personally feel he’s less of a defensive strain because he’d rather shoot jumpers than bang the rim with the same youthful exuberance LeBron exhibited in the ECF. Dwight Howard’s fouls will be picked up more so in the interior as a result…dealing with the footwork of Pau Gasol and the length of Odom (off help) and Bynum (to a lesser extent). Ariza will attack the rim when the opportunities are there. The Lakers will use up all their bench fouls dealing with Howard. Will they play him straight up and let him get off?
Expect Mikael Pietrus to hit a couple of corner threes, as will Shannon Brown to push their respective teams score over the top.
Everyone assumes that because Dwight Howard is playing he’s gonna be in foul trouble the entire time. Yeah the Lakers will do whatever they can do to get him out of the game, but what about the Lakers defense? They too will pick up fouls trying to stop a 23 year old budding superstar in Hulk’s clothing. How many bodies will they throw at the big fella? Make him mad, I dare you. Marcin Gortat is no Dwight Howard but is a capable backup doing all the dirty work if Howard does in fact get in foul trouble. Howard will be a monster on the glass as long as he keeps Gasol and Odom at bay boxing out. I see him averaging 16-18 rips.
If they Lakers do lose, this will be their third straight trip to the Finals without a chip. How will Kobe react? Jackson? Jackson is 9-2 coaching in the Finals and will surpass Red Auerbach for the most titles all time as a coach with a series victory against the Magic. Remember, despite the Zen master demeanor, Phil is a competitor. He can say he doesn’t care all he wants, but he does want this bad. Trust. Don’t be shocked if he retires if the Lakers do win.
I see it this way. Kobe will get between 30 and 35…maybe more…because he is a cold blooded NBA assassin, but so will Dwight Howard. The parallels between he and Shaq at this stage in their careers are amazing. Both with have played in their initial Finals at age 23. If the Leviathan shoots 70% from the line, the Magic win. Rafer Alston is going to get his and so will Gasol with Lewis checking him. That leaves the benches of both teams (Lakers advantage), Turkoglu and Odom.
Offensively, I gotta go with Hedo because of his decided three point shooting advantage.
Is Lamar going to step up?
It’s not that I feel the Magic are the better team, but their penchant to hit from deep is the decided factor. More shots. More threes. More points.
The crowds will be crazy. Straight crazy, but I think the Magic crowd will affect the Magic more because this is the big time. The Lakers are used to all of this, so it’s business as usual. The Magic have proved they are a great road team. Hitting threes in the late moments on the road is incredible.
The Magic Howard/Turkoglu pick and roll will be a mainstay and will lead to both players getting free almost at their leisure. If Hedo is making shots, making the right reads off the pick and roll and running the offense with confidence as the point forward, the Lakers are in trouble because Howard will be putting the rim in traction. Hedo has gotta make the right decisions precisely at the correct time and hit his teammates in their spots for the Magic to find a successful rhythm.
What adjustments will Phil make to disrupt the Magic offense.
Kobe will win games by himself, but as with the Celtics last year, I see decidedly more firepower on the Magic side and they have the Defensive Player of the Year.
This league is ruled by big men in the Finals. Think Garnett, Shaq, Duncan. Locks up the titles all the way back to Mike and Scottie right?
The Magic offset the Kobe clutch with precision shooting in critical moments.
Dwight gets his and Kobe gets pissed.
Magic in 7.
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June 4th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
Well Mike I decided not to say who was going to win or lose, but everyone knows where my heart is in this series. However your analyst is very in depth. You broke it down, so that it is forever broken. Good job, and nice way to shout out the toughest ‘hood in southeast PA.
June 5th, 2009 at 12:02 am
Thanks brothaman. I want it for Kobe as a fan, but the writer in me sees things differently.
June 5th, 2009 at 3:31 am
Quite a review. The Lakers depth and match-up problems give them the solid edge. Throw in Kobe and you have a potential sweep. After watching tonight LA in 5.
June 5th, 2009 at 4:26 am
Wish I had seen this before the game so I could rebut some of the analysis. But too late. Anyway the Lakers height bothered the Magic and Howard as (should have been) expected and the Lakers played D the whole game which was kind of unexpected.
I will agree that big men rule (Kobe excepted) and the simple fact is the Lakers have more of them.
June 5th, 2009 at 4:56 am
This was one game at home. The Magic will not shoot 29% in game two. There’s no way. The Lakers should have won Game. The difference was the lack of point production from the Magic stars. Add up the totals.
Everybody and their Momma’s picking the Lakers. That’s an easy pick. I dare to be different. Of course sometimes I may be wrong, but the good are separated from the great simply by the risks they take.
We should all expect the Magic to rebound for Game 2. Not saying the Lakers win was an aberration, but it’s one game in a league where there was no definitive favorite.
Kobe Bryant is a killer. All that smiling he (Howard) did in the presser was almost disgusting. Hell, it was disgusting. I expected Dwight to feed off Bean’s energy and rock out. He will learn from this.
Kobe wants this more than the most rabid Laker fan and if the Magic don’t find a way to match his intensity, they will straight up get swept.
June 5th, 2009 at 6:41 am
They might not shoot 29% in game 2, but Laker fans have been wanting that sort of energy and focus and KNOWING the Lakers could bring it like that, all playoffs. If you can’t bring it like that in the Finals, when will you? I expect more of that intensity in Game 2. Yeah, maybe I’m a doe-eyed optimist but as a fan, what else can I be? And championship teams step up. I said after last year, if Andrew was healthy, they’d win, and I stand by that.
June 5th, 2009 at 7:07 am
I agree. Andrew knows the stage he’s on from sitting out last year. If he plays to his ability, then I’m totally on board, but he hasn’t shown it at any time since his return from injury. I just want to see it. Not a pessimist or a cynic by any stretch. I just want to see it happen.
June 5th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
The Magic can still turn the series around, but Rashad Lewis has to step up. He has a tendency to disappear at times, and then re-appear. Kobe took advantage of Lewis’ no-show by making shot after shot without any Magic resistance and the game got out of control. However, in Game 1 when Dwight Howard got into foul trouble and Pietrus was throwing up airballs, Lewis as an elder statesman on the team (29 years old) has the skillset to take over a game.
Lewis seems disinterested and lack intensity on the court … and during that pivotal second quarter Lewis was a no-show. He needed to make some impact plays for his team to keep the Magic in the game. Lewis has the same ability as a Kobe Bryant, but sometimes he just disappears on the court… Outside of Anthony Johnson and Tyron Lue and Hedu, Lewis is the most experienced guy on the court with the BEST OVERALL OFFENSIVE SKILLSET at 6′10… THIS GUY NEEDS TO HELD MORE ACCOUNTABLE!!!!
Lewis should win most one-on-one situations. In regards to Lamar Odom, Odom seems a little bit stronger than Rashard, but Lewis should be able to do more damage than just EIGHT points for the whole game…
June 5th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
If Lewis had the same ability as Kobe he would be making puppet commercials with him. As it stands he didn’t look all that effective going to the hole when the three was taken away from him.
Still I expect Orlando to figure out a way for Howard to get the ball more, but I don’t know if it will be enough.
June 6th, 2009 at 7:36 am
Understood Mizzo. You’re right. Until it’s done, it’s only promise unfulfilled.