Ron Glover’s Super Bowl XLIV Prediction: Who Dat? The Colts Dey Who!
As I’m beginning this post, I’m still on the fence with this game, so I’ve chosen to adopt the “gun to my head” philosophy. No need to explain there.
This is one of the more evenly matched Super Bowl contests in recent memory – two highly potent offensives, backed by good defenses – not great, but very capable of having an impact in any game.
Prepare to be entertained.
Today in Miami, the franchise once known as the ‘Aints look to show the world ‘Who Dey’ be, while the Indianapolis Colts are out to prove that you can turn it off and on again after dropping games in weeks 16 & 17 to stay healthy enough to hoist their second Lombardi Trophy in three seasons.
When the Saints have the ball: Drew Brees has been on of the most prolific passers in the NFL the past five seasons. Since his move to the Saints in post-Katrina New Orleans, Brees has taken NFL secondaries apart. This season, he fell 14 yards shy of Dan Marino’s all-time season passing mark.
With the exception of Brees, Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush the Saints’ arsenal is a group of virtual unknowns – Pierre Thomas, Marques Colston, Mike Bell, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem. As a unit, this group is as good as any backwoods jambalaya. The bulk of the Saints offensive output comes through the air, but are also very capable to run the ball inside (Thomas and Bell) or out (Bush). As has been the case all season, Bush is the X-factor for New Orleans, the key is to get Bush in space where he becomes an automatic mismatch against anyone on the Colts defense.
Colts Defense: To neutralize Bush, the Colts should blitz randomly to keep him in the backfield as a blocker and if he gets into space he may be matched up against a corner. This is where things get sticky because it allows Brees to pick his spots if he decides to go to a Trips Set (3 receivers).
The Colts will more than likely be without All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney, even if Freeney plays he will not be at 100% which means that backup Raheem Brock will be asked to shoulder the load. The Colts will struggle in the passing game if they are unable to get to Brees. The loss of Freeney and safety Bob Sanders leaves an already thin secondary at the mercy of Brees & Co. All is not lost for the Colts upfront as LE Robert Mathis and DT Antonio Johnson will make it difficult. Keep an eye out for Gary Brackett at MLB, I like this guy!
The Colts run defense has been light out in the postseason, they were able to shut down the Ravens running attack (87 yards) and stiffle the League’s best running attack by holding the New York Jets to 86 yards on the ground. This was very encouraging considering the defense gave up 127 ypg in the regular season (24th in the NFL).
The Saints running attack has the potential to open things up in a hurry (6th in the NFL in rushing), so the Colts are going to have to commit to stopping either the pass or the run. As for Freeney it has been reported that he was seen walking in dress shoes limp-free, so expect him to pull a Jack Youngblood/Terrell Owens and play on a injured wheel.
When the Colts have the ball: If Drew Brees likens himself to a mythic warrior, then Peyton Manning is a futuristic cyborg. This is by far the most impressed that I’ve been with the play of Manning. When Marvin Harrison was released, we wondered if then third receiver Anthony Gonzalez could step in full time with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Then Gonzalez was lost in Week 1 and everyone but the Colts staff panicked.
Enter rookie Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon in his second season. Collie and Garcon provided Manning with a slot receiver and an additional deep threat as if he needed more. In the postseason Garcon has opened the eyes of many who overlooked the receiver out of Mount Union, while Collie has been just as reliable, thus taking heat off of an injured Reggie Wayne and allowing tight end Dallas Clark to sneak behind coverages.
In the backfield, Joseph Addai has not broken the 1,000 yard mark for the second consecutive season but he was able to post a career high in receptions. Most importantly he was able to remain healthy thanks largely to the production of rookie Donald Brown out of UConn. Brown has proven to be a needed commoodity in the offense he helps out in short yardage situations as well as being an adequate blocker. Dallas Clark could/should have a big game, the production of Wayne (hopefully), Collie and Garcon will give Clark room to sit down underneath.
Saints Defense: You wanna beat the Colts? Ditch your blitz package, send no more than four rushers and spread your other 7-8 defenders to cover the field to the point where help is available. The fact that the Vikings were able to move up and down the field has to be a cause for concern. On the flip side coming up with five turnover (3 fumbles) shows that this unit will be opportunistic.
Up front,ends Will Smith and Bobby McCray will have to get off the ball early and often to at least make Manning uncomfortable. Manning isn’t untouchable back there the Saints just have to pick their spots…wisely. Linebackers Scott Shanle, Scott Fujita and Jonathan Vilma should be able to drop back in coverage on occasion. I expect Vilma to make a big play in this one.
Darren Sharper is the most important player in this unit, the wily veteran will be all over the field today and don’t be surprised if he causes a turnover today. Fellow safety Roman Harper will be asked to expand in his coverage duties assisting corners Jabari Greer and Tracey Porter.
Special Teams: This is where an otherwise even game could take a turn – for the worst if your in blue and white. Reggie Bush’s duties will be maximized today and the punt and kick return game is where he could make his impact. Playing with a short field has been something that has been a benefit for the Saints all season.
Prediction: As I said earlier, I’m on the fence with this game. I’m looking forward to a high scoring game and maybe watching a record or two fall. This may threaten overtime. I think the leg of Matt Stover stops the madness.
Colts 48 – Saints 45
Who dat?? Dey NOT DA Colts!
LOL!
This was the greatest sports night of my life and I don’t think anything will top it.
I know Miranda, I know
@ Clifton enjoy it, bask in it, roll around in it, eat it up. You and your City deserve it. Congrats!
Anybody notice that Manning didn’t shake hands and there’s nary a word about it?
MSN said it was understandable given what had just transpired on the field!
ha ha ha hahaha!
MOTS…more of the same.
Do you all have any thoughts on how this offense was held to 7 points over 3 quarters?
seems Caldwell was an unmoving target so payton took his shots certain his target would be caught off-guard.
the colts stood still to be beaten and they were.
in the end their one playmaker is manning! all go through manning. if manning is off or stopped with punishing defence its all over!
if my colts are to win another superbowl all that must change.
caldwell has to build a super defence which will be helped when he gets his best corners back from injury.
the O’ line must be spruced up and the running game improved and actually USED as it should be in games.
manning must be de-emphasised ….most important part of the offence..not all of it! a couple more real play-makers would help
seems a strong offensive coordinator with a truly broad spectrum of offence is needed.
also colts brain trust must pay attention to the oppostion..undertsand them and all they can possibly do in a game siatuation, all the better to thwart their efforts
the colts ought not to be caught napping by on-side kicks .
this sb reminded me of when the patriots seemed presciently aware of whatever the colts did.
we know now how Brady knew, but the saints could not possibly have known could they?
did payton coach for Bellicheck? I dont remember where he came from!
my 2 cents worth!
Here’s the $100M question:
We all know that the MVPs of the Colts last Super Bowl were Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai. Addai was well on his way to this Super Bowl’s MVP award if the Colts continued to give him the ball.
Do you think Peyton Manning chose to pass so much because he was actually concerned about his legacy?
Do you think that was a factor? (To be fair, Addai did score the only Colts TD of the second half.) OR, do you think it was just because the game was played so quickly and the Saints held the ball for so long?
Note: Payton coached for Parcells.
T3 -
Yes, I think his ego played a part in it. Peyton’s always had a reputation as a choker. At Tennessee, he could never beat Florida. It had to pain him that after he left, Tee Martin led them to a victory over Florida, and the national championship. Peyton got all the records, but couldn’t win the big one.
When the Colts made their march to the Super Bowl, Manning had a pedestrian playoffs. He had 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Yes, he won MVP of the Super Bowl, but every thinking person alive knew that Addai & Rhodes were the reason that the Colts won. Looking at his face that night, even Peyton didn’t think that he deserved it.
In the Super Bowl, Addai was averaging almost 6 yards a carry, yet only had 13 carries. Manning threw the ball 45 times. (I seem to remember someone from this board writing an article some time ago about how when QB’s throw more than their usual in a game, they rarely win.
) That was way too many with Addai gashing the Saints defense. A couple more runs in there instead of throwing, and it would have likely softened up the Saints defense even more for a play action pass.
Peyton is human. I think he heard the best of all time talk, and wants to be known as the best. He should stop listening. Even if he won this game, he still wouldn’t be the best QB of all time because of all of the rule changes, his weak division, and his playoff record in general.
He’s the best regular season QB of all time. The Colts offense runs like a machine. However, that’s it’s weakness in the playoffs when more is allowed, and defenses get more aggressive. Those timing patterns don’t work like they do in the regular season. The CB’s are allowed to bump harder and maybe a couple more yards from scrimmage. Pass rushers are allowed a couple more steps. All of this means that the run is even more important in the playoffs, and Peyton allowed his ego to get the best of him in this game.
excellent commentary there!
Mannings role in the offence must be de-emphasised and all facets of a comprehensive offfence developed and used.
mannings skills as qb would be part of the mix, an important cog!
but too much was left to manning this time and previously.
given the way manning is it is not wise policy to leave it all up to him…to rely exclusively on his quarter-backing of games
a de-emphasis in this way is surely one way to address mannings flaws and great cost this has turned out to be for the colts!
I know that i’m late on the commentary, but check the archives — i said at the beginning of the NFL season that with the addition of Greg Williams as DC, the Saints would win it all.
@T3,
I definitely think that Manning was more concerned with his legacy than following the script that won them their first SB (running the ball). It’s just too bad for him that it was Drew Brees on the opposing team instead of Rex Grossman.
@ kos
I definitely agree that Manning is the best regular season QB of all-time; but come playoff time, he’s no better than Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer.
It’s funny that when the Colts win, Peyton gets all the credit. But when they lose, the head coach gets blamed. Correct me if i’m wrong, but Jim Caldwell didn’t throw that pick-6, right?